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Midterm elections for the House are usually major defeats for the party of a newly elected president, and that bodes poorly for President Donald Trump and the Republicans, right? Well, sort of. There are lots of crosscurrents that could swamp this basic rule of American politics.

For starters, Trump is no ordinary Republican president. He is unpopular in the country as a whole, but wildly popular among his base. And more than most presidents, Trump is trying to turn the midterms into a referendum on himself.

Opinion | Both Sides Have Reasons To Worry About Midterm Turnout

Don’t believe anyone who says they know what’s going to happen


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